Strong uncertainties weigh on the outlook for the national economy

The recovery of the national economy is expected to continue next year, said the High Commission for Planning (HCP) in its 2022 exploratory economic budget which presents a review of national economic growth in 2021, as well as the outlook for it. year 2022. The public institution warned, however, that the outlook for 2022 should remain surrounded by strong uncertainties mainly due to the evolution of the epidemiological situation and the outcome of the vaccination process at the national and international levels. It should be noted that the HCP projections for the year 2022 “take into account new trends in the international environment, in particular, the evolution of raw material prices in virtual stabilization and the global demand addressed to Morocco which is expected to increase by nearly 6.7% in 2022 after 9.3% in 2021 ”. These forecasts also take into account “the renewal of the budgetary policy in force in 2021 and an average cereal production during the agricultural season 2021/2022″, specified the public body. Thus, on the basis of these assumptions, the HCP indicated that non-agricultural activities should register an added value increasing by nearly 3.6% in 2022 instead of 4.1% in 2021. This development would be attributed in particular ” continued recovery of the tertiary sector under the effect of the recovery of market services, particularly tourism, transport and trade due to the planned opening of borders in 2022 ”, explained the HCP. Under the assumption of an average scenario of cereal production and the consolidation of that of other agricultural crops and livestock, the primary sector should generate added value down 2.9% after a rebound of 17%. 5% in 2021. Thanks in particular to the improvement in the construction and mining sectors and the performance of the processing industries, mainly in connection with the expected improvement in external demand, the secondary sector should, for its part, continue to grow. ” show a strengthening added value showing growth of 3.4% in 2022. As for the tertiary sector, the High Commission expects growth of 3.7% in 2022 instead of the 4.1% expected this year. Regarding the Gross Domestic Product, it should register a growth rate of around 2.9% in 2022, after a recovery of 5.8% expected in 2021. This forecast takes into account a change in taxes and taxes on products net of subsidies of 4.4%, said the HCP. “In nominal terms, the gross domestic product should register an increase of 3.8%”, indicated the High Commission noting that this evolution shows a slight increase in inflation, measured by the implicit index of GDP, of 0.9% instead of 1.5% in 2021. According to projections, domestic demand should continue to recover, but at a lower level than in 2021, while the widening of the current account deficit should continue. It should be noted that the financing requirement should, for its part, continue to be reduced next year, due to the gradual recovery in tax revenues. Which recovery is “attributable to the continued strengthening of non-agricultural activities and the return of the dynamism of domestic demand benefiting from the moderate rate of inflation and the renewed confidence of economic operators”, according to the HCP. As for the projections for the current year, it appears that national economic activity should experience a rebound in its growth after a deep recession in 2020. This strengthening would be attributable in particular to the promising outlook for the 2020/2021 agricultural season as well as the resumption, under the base effect, of non-agricultural activities benefiting from an attenuation of the negative effects of the health crisis, thus reflecting the start of the recovery of the national economy. According to HCP projections for this year, “the control of the pandemic situation and the smooth running of the vaccination campaign should stimulate the gradual return of optimism in households and businesses”. This should result in the recovery of domestic demand fostered by the implementation of the measures of the economic recovery pact. The High Commission, on the other hand, estimated that “the persistence of the high level of the budget deficit should lead to a further increase in the public debt which would be covered in 2021 mainly by recourse to the domestic market and to a lesser extent by the mobilization of external financing ”. Never mind, Morocco’s indebtedness remains “at still manageable levels”, assured the HCP, affirming that solutions are possible to reduce the burden on growth potential. Alain Bouithy